Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles preview, prediction: On Paper

A breakdown that is statistical of Lions’ Week 3 matchup.

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The Detroit Lions additionally the Philadelphia Eagles are since close to 2-0 because they are to 0-2. Both groups discovered themselves trailing in all of their first couple of games, and both been employed by their solution to even the rating. For the Eagles, their heroic comeback on Sunday evening had been spoiled by a giant gaffe that is defensive the last couple of minutes. Meanwhile, the Lions’ blew a lead that is 18-point the Cardinals and might just muster a tie after that.

Both groups have work to do to eclipse the existing teams that are undefeated their particular divisions, but both undoubtedly desire to be within the playoff battle come December. Which means this game could truly involve some implications that are serious tiebreakers—assuming, within the Lions situation, that another playoff contender has a tie.

So who’s the bonus on Sunday? Let’s look at the matchup. In Writing.

Lions pass offense (22nd in DVOA in 2018) vs. Eagles pass defense (fifteenth)

This year’s DVOA: Lions (8th) vs. Eagles (23rd)

This is our week that is final that simply simply just take 2018 data under consideration. A year ago, the Lions moving offense started strong, but following the trade of Golden Tate plus the problems for Marvin Jones, things quickly dropped aside.

In 2010, things turn to be brighter for Matthew Stafford and business, specially under brand brand new unpleasant coordinator Darrell Bevell. Stafford happens to be particularly proficient at play action:

One big part of the #Lions game that is passing? The play-action pass. Matthew Stafford is 16-of-21 off play fakes thus far this 12 months through two games. Expect you’ll see significantly more than a number of most of these playcalls from #OnePride on Sunday. It really is a big element of what they are doing. #DETvsPHI

The Lions happen proficient at distributing the ball around, too. Six various players have at minimum four catches through two games and four various receivers have actually touchdowns. In comparison, zero Bears players have caught a touchdown (sorry, couldn’t assist myself.)

Presently, the Lions rank 10th in passer score (102.6), t-eighth in yards per effort (8.4) and generally are seventeenth in conclusion percentage (65.3). They’ve been specially great at getting amount plays through the atmosphere, with 11 performs for 20+ yards (t-third) and possess only permitted three sacks (t-eighth).

A year ago, the Eagles pass protection had been pretty normal, though they recovered very well within the last half associated with season—a pattern which will emerge using this 2018 Eagles team.

In 2010, they’re down to a different sluggish begin. The rest of the raw data should be somewhat unsettling for Eagles fans though they created a few turnovers last week against the Falcons. They’re passer that is currently 20th permitted (98.8), t-21st in yards per effort (8.0) and sixteenth in conclusion percentage (65.5).

The eagles have only managed two sacks on the years, but they’re still very much capable of creating pressure despite Jim Schwartz’s aggressive defense.

Golladay had their breakout game of the season week that is last an extremely skilled cornerback in Casey Hayward Jr. An eight-catch, 117-yard performance is impressive, but carrying it out against an excellent young part is an entire various degree. Ronald Darby, too, can be an impressive corner, but he’s off to a terrible begin to 2019. Could it be only a sluggish begin or is Darby still experiencing the consequences of their torn ACL from 2018? Time will tell.

Advantage: Lions +1.5

Protection is going to be key right right here, as Brandon Graham is certainly another player that may influence this matchup greatly. We’re still uncertain just who is going to be playing remaining tackle this week as Taylor Decker remains restricted in practice. The other day, his replacement, Tyrell Crosby, did a superb task in security, as well as the Lions unpleasant line, overall, rebounded in a way that is big.

To date, Bevell has appeared the component as an excellent unpleasant coordinator, while the Lions’ passing game looks revitalized. Going against a beat-up, mediocre-at-best Philly additional, we have medium confidence the Lions should win this matchup.

Lions run offense (25th) vs. Eagles operate protection (9th)

This year’s DVOA: Lions (28th) vs. Eagles (2nd)

The Lions have been operating the ball great deal, but they’ve been anything but efficient with those runs—and that fits precisely what we saw for the all of the 2018 period. The Lions are frantically shuffling their backfield as a result. They’ve already cut veteran C.J. Anderson (16 carries, 43 yards) and included J.D. McKissic and Paul Perkins because the roster that is initial set.

The Lions’ inside offensive linemen appear become doing their task acceptably, but Detroit has actually struggled to block from the sides, and that includes rough play from their newly-transformed end room that is tight. We could finally see Kerryon Johnson perform at the levels he did last year, but so far it has been slim pickings if they can fall in line.

Detroit is averaging simply 3.5 yards per carry (t-25th) and it is presently making very first downs on a measly 18.3 per cent of carries (24th). The Lions are certainly one of 12 groups with out a rush of 20+ yards.

The Eagles run protection had been an unit that is top-10 12 months, in addition they might be better still this season. They’re currently fourth in yards per carry allowed (2.8), third in yards permitted (85) and very very first in first down percentage (10.0%).

The reason that is only doubt this product may be the recent loss in defensive tackle Timmy Jernigan. Combined with loss in Malik Jackson to IR, the Eagles are down seriously to their 4th sequence tackle that is defensive.

Nevertheless the Eagles nevertheless have.

Player to look at: Fletcher Cox.

While Cox is many known for their ability and quickness to hurry the passer, he’s no slouch being a run defender, either. The exact same really can be stated for Brandon Graham, too. That protective front side is nevertheless really beneficial to Philly, despite having the accidents.

Advantage: Eagles +2.5.

There is certainly some small hope that the Lions could possibly get back on the right track this week. It truly may seem like for each run they’re merely a few ins away from breaking away a huge one. Furthermore, the injury to Jernigan will impact the game certainly.

Nevertheless, the amount that is overwhelming of proof points to the being a matchup greatly within the benefit of this Eagles. That won’t stop the Lions from wanting to run the ball, but i’dn’t expect this to function as that Kerryon Johnson breaks out week.

Eagles pass offense (11th) vs. Lions pass protection (31st)

This year’s DVOA: Eagles (10th) vs. Lions (10th)

Whether or not it ended up being Carson Wentz or Nick Foles, the Eagles had not a problem tossing on fools a year ago. This present year, it seems to be much more of the identical, although a week ago had been undoubtedly a fascinating information point.

On one side, the Eagles needed to handle sudden accidents to DeSean Jackson, Dallas Goedert and Alshon Jeffery, seriously altering their strategy from the Falcons. They obviously played far better when you look at the last half than the very first.

Having said that, Wentz made some terrible errors early in that game, while the Eagles’ pass protection seemed extremely shaky against A atlanta that is admittedly impressive front side.

The Eagles will surely be shorthanded making use of their unpleasant tools this week—with their top two receivers most most likely out—but they have had the full week to organize because of it essay outline template this time around.

Detroit’s offseason want to turn their pass defense around seemingly have worked so far. Though on occasion the Cardinals and Chargers appeared to be in a position to pick apart the additional, for the many component, the Lions have won those matchups.

Compliment of play that is solid number 2 cornerback Rashaan Melvin (he leads the league with five pass breakups) and some dazzling plays through the Lions’ playmakers (Darius Slay, Tracy Walker), the Lions pass protection presently ranks eighth in passer score allowed (74.4), 13th in yards per effort (6.7) and t-fourth in completion portion allowed (55.6).